Hello Hendra,
It's Paul with today's market review
Let's start from fundamental view
China Presented Negative Data
The data on Chinese economy for July had a great impact on stock markets and affected exchange rates as well.
The Asian giant presented alarming figures of foreign trade balance with a significant drop in exports which resulted in world imports exponents.
The Australian dollar suffered the most losing its secondary uptrend against the dollar. It is quite obvious as Australia is one of the largest Chinese exporters. And the recent news undoubtedly influenced the market.
But the euro fall is accounted not only for Chinese poor statistics but also for its own evils. Italy announced that it will probably have to ask for fund bailout from the Eurozone, while Spain's situation does not improve.
Meanwhile, the German finance ministry said added more pessimism stating that the risk of growth slowdown of the Eurozone economy is increasing. As it is seen, the situation is difficult within the European currency which, however, does not leave a fairly narrow price range, like all other leading currencies.
Meanwhile, a significant drop in the price of oil is pushing back its top of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso. The loonie was affected the day before by a negative trade balance from Canada. The USD /CAD rate reached 0.9910, where it found support, technically speaking, in the bottom of a bearish channel on the 4 hour chart. Although it has lost 20 points that separate the current price which evidences that it will not be easy to recover.
The pound sterling accompanies the euro with its downward movement, and has just broken the line passing upward by 1.5605. The minimum of the day, 1.5575, can be easily overcome if the price fails to break higher while seeking a pullback against the mentioned line. The trend of the pound for the next few hours, therefore, is bearish.
AUD/USD Sell Bellow 1.0610
Australia is one of the largest Chinese exporters. That is why recent pessimistic news undoubtedly influenced the market. The Asian giant presented alarming figures of foreign trade balance with a significant drop in exports which resulted in world imports exponents.
The Australian dollar suffered the most losing its secondary uptrend against the dollar.
Yesterday we mentioned that AUD / USD had a very strong resistance at 1.0610 and 1.0620; given that the indicators are showing overbought position, there may be a fall for the next few days.
Therefore, a return to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.0545 will be our entry level in short, targeted to the 1.0288 level of the moving average of 200 periods.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing bearish signal.
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5680
The pound sterling is quoted below weekly pivot line, so it means that a close below this level could push the currency down to 1.5506. As you know the market is trying to rebound in the levels of support, so it is likely to rebound towards the 1.5675. At this level we recommend selling to the nearest targeted support 1.5506.
Furthermore, if after trading session the pair is above 1.5690, we recommend close our short positions as during the next week we could see a recovery of the pound sterling.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing mixed trend.
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