Fundamental Analysis

The dollar weakened in the last hours against most leading currencies, amid the drop in retail sales indicator for June released on Monday.

As a result the Dow Jones also lost its position, and, thus the recovery of the U.S. economy is under the threat again after an encouraging increase in wholesale inflation which was released last week.

There are many good opinions that the Fed might choose to stimulate the economy, call it stimulus plan through the injection of money or otherwise. But the FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday showed that its members are against this possibility and still believe that there may be some kind of recovery by other means, other than direct intervention by a QE.

Sure, the adverse employment data together with negative retail sales report and a series of other numbers may gradually change the Fed opinion. Therefore, the Chairman Ben Bernanke morning report is of fundamental importance.

There is a speculation that Bernanke may announce some sort of a plan to change this situation that has become again disappointing. Hence, it is that the Dow Jones index futures grow during the last hours before the official presentation, while the currencies behave more calmly, without major changes.

The euro could not exceed 1.2315 during the last hours, and short term uptrend is in doubt. Only overcoming of that level will give strength to the single currency over the next few hours. As for the British pound, it remains firmer with a downward correction which has never jeopardized its short term uptrend. The British currency demonstrated the growth again during the American session at 1.5675 break.

The yen remains firm and without appropriate movements, while the Australian dollar uptrend is presented in 4 hours charts, which should confirm the break of 1.0310.

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook

The Euro failed to break the 1.2315 during the last hours, and short term uptrend is doubtful. Only overcoming of that level will give strength to the euro over the next few hours.

According to the Fractals indicator, we noticed a strong resistance in the euro around 1.2408; this level will be the final test for the change in the euro downtrend. Given that there is no relief from this crisis that adds pressure on the euro, we believe that the downtrend will continue.

Therefore, we recommend sell at 1.24 or 1.2408 with targets up to 1.2150.

The trend indicator shows bullish strength.

GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5704

The British pound gain strength amid a downward correction, currently its short-term uptrend is not in danger. The weekly resistance level 1.5704, which is the key to the pair, has a clear path and can continue its way to the south. We believe that this will happen only when it has resolved the major part of the problems within the European Union. Taking into account that gloomy future, we recommend selling at the level of 1.5704 with targets at 1.5520.

On the other hand, a return to the weekly pivot line recommend buying at this level the pair, again sought to break the 1.57.

The trend indicator shows bullish strength.