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Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals- For 20 - 24 August , 2012


Hello Hendra!
This is Paul with the Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals- For 20 - 24 August
EUR/USD
The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for EUR/USD are: 1.2324 weekly; 1.2342 monthly.
The euro is located below the weekly pivot point and below the Moving Average of 200 periods.
Accordingly, the pivot points signify the following.
A daily close above the pivot point of 1.2324 can increase the probability of a rise to 1.2454 weekly resistance (W_R2). On the other hand, a close below the weekly pivot point will initiate a decline which could continue until 1.2264 (W_S1) and 1.2194 (W_S2). It is possible that at that level the pair may find a strong rebound.
Signal For 20 - 24 August 2012
Bearish Strategy
Sell short below 1.2324, take profit at 1.2264 and 1.2190, Stop Loss is above weekly pivot of 1.2324.

Bullish Strategy
Buy long above 1.2340, take profit 1.2394 and 1.2454, Stop Loss is below weekly pivot of 1.2324.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.2524
Weekly - R2 = 1.2454
Weekly - R1 = 1.2394
Weekly Pivot = 1.2324
Weekly - S1 = 1.2264
Weekly - S2 = 1.2194
Weekly - S3 = 1.2134
  ____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3274
Monthly - R2 = 1.2977
Monthly - R1 = 1.2639
Monthly Pivot = 1.2342
Monthly - S1 = 1.2004
Monthly - S2 = 1.1707
Monthly - S3 = 1.1369
GBP/USD
The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for GBP/USD are: 1.5693 weekly; 1.5582 monthly.
The British pound is located near the pivot weekly and below the Moving Average of 200 periods (blue). Therefore, the pivot points indicate the following:
A daily close below the weekly pivot increases the downward pressure. On the other hand, it is possible that the pair will try to break 1.5749 resistance again, so we recommend selling only if the pair fails in the attempt to exceed that level.
Signal For 20 - 24 August 2012
Sell short at 1.5740 or sell below 1.5693, take profit at 1.56.40 and 1.5585, Stop Loss is above weekly resistance of 1.5749.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.5858
Weekly - R2 = 1.5802
Weekly - R1 = 1.5749
Weekly Pivot = 1.5693
Weekly - S1 = 1.5640
Weekly - S2 = 1.5584
Weekly - S3 = 1.5531
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6210
Monthly - R2 = 1.5989
Monthly - R1 = 1.5834
Monthly Pivot = 1.5613
Monthly - S1 = 1.5458
Monthly - S2 = 1.5237
Monthly - S3 = 1.5082
AUD/USD
The Pivot Point (PPV) can serve well as both support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for AUD/USD are: 1.0467 weekly; 1.0379 monthly.
The Australian dollar is below the pivot weekly and above the Moving Average of 200 periods (blue). Therefore, the pivot points show the following.
The weekly pivot level of 1.0467 serves as resistance, a close above this level can change the downtrend with objectives to the resistance of weekly (W_R2) strong level of 1.0630.
On the other hand, downward pressure will continue to increase below the weekly pivot which aims at the 200 day moving average period (blue) near the second weekly support at 1.0304 (W_S2).
Signal For 20 - 24 August 2012
Sell short at 1.0535 or sell below 1.0467 with take profit at 1.0362 and 1.0304, Stop Loss at 1.0630
 _____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0688
Weekly - R2 = 1.0630
Weekly - R1 = 1.0525
Weekly Pivot = 1.0467
Weekly - S1 = 1.0362
Weekly - S2 = 1.0304
Weekly - S3 = 1.0199
  _____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1098
Monthly - R2 = 1.0817
Monthly - R1 = 1.0660
Monthly Pivot = 1.0379
Monthly - S1 = 1.0222
Monthly - S2 = 0.9941
Monthly - S3 = 0.9784 
USD/JPY
The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for USD/JPY are: 79.09 weekly; 79.35 monthly.
The Japanese yen is located above the weekly pivot and above the Moving Average of 200 periods (blue). Therefore, taking into account the pivot points, we can conclude the following.
The level of 79.09 (Pivot) is the weekly pivot, the past few weeks the pair was trading below this level, there is possible a correction to the pivot, which now serve as support, therefore, there can be a good buying opportunity at this level. As the upward trend has started, the pair will have a strong resistance to be overcome at 80.03 (W_R1) where the pair is coming out of the downward pressure. A break of the first weekly resistance of 80.03 could be extended up to 81.45 (W_R3).
Signal For 20 - 24 August 2012
Buy long at 79.09, take profit at 80.03, Stop Loss bellow weekly Pivot of 79.09.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 81.45
Weekly - R2 = 80.51
Weekly - R1 = 80.03
Weekly Pivot = 79.09
Weekly - S1 = 78.61
Weekly - S2 = 77.67
Weekly - S3 = 77.19
 ____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 84.64
Monthly - R2 = 80.86
Monthly - R1 = 79.49
Monthly Pivot = 78.71
Monthly - S1 = 77.34
Monthly - S2 = 76.56
Monthly - S3 = 75.19

Fundamental Analysis, 17 Agust 2012


Hello Hendra,
It's Paul with today's market review
Let's start from fundamental view
Fundamental Analysis
The euro seems to break its weekly high and approach the area of 1.24 which has become a strong resistance in recent days. The single currency demonstrated an interesting recovery on Thursday, after the German leader Angela Merkel supported the European Central Bank in their intention to start solving the issue of sovereign debt of countries with serious payment difficulties. After meeting the French leader Holland, and the Greek Prime Minister Samaras, Merkel made some remarks concerning steps that Europe is going to take in order to cope with the economic challenges.
However, the major currency pairs do not leave narrow price ranges. The euro and the pound sterling as well as the Swiss franc move in very sharp bands without getting investors' confidence in those currencies. Nor is favored the dollar, although the retail sales data and inflation account for a new, though warm, recovery of the U.S. economy.
The Dow Jones index futures demonstrated an uptrend which may extend to the rest of the day.
Returning to the leading currencies, the Australian dollar lost its dominant uptrend in the last hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia was set to perform another cut in interest rates in the near future. The Aussie benefited from interest rates that are well above those offered by major central banks, and also by the high level of trade between Australia and China. However, the slowdown of the Asian giant for the past two months has a great impact on the Australian economy which anyway has a very still solid core.
The Canadian dollar remains very strong, now below 0.99, favored by the stability of oil prices. Presently there is no threat for short term uptrend. Meanwhile, the yen is away from highs in recent weeks, and after the break of a trend line in the medium term, it accelerates downward direction (upward in the figures), seeking the 80.10 area with strong resistance.
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook
The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5740
The pound sterling failed to hold above 1.5740 resistance, currently it is quoted below this level and it is likely that the downward pressure will bring it to 1.5640 next support level. It is possible that the currency will try to break this level again. If the attempt is unsuccessful, we recommend selling on the return 1.5732, with targets at 1.5646, the stop loss is placed above the highs of 1.5770.
The indicators are showing negative divergence.

Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points and signals for August 13 - 17, 2012


Hello Hendra!
This is Paul with the weekly strategy for August 13 - 17, 2012
USD/JPY
The Pivot Point (PPV) is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for USD/JPY are: 78.39 weekly; 79.35 monthly.
The Japanese yen is located below the weekly pivot and bellow the Moving Average of 200 periods (blue). Therefore, taking into account the pivot points, we can conclude the following.
The price level is approaching the pivot; a close above this level may be the beginning of the upward trend until 79.04 weekly resistance R2.
Furthermore, it is possible that at the support level of 77.99 the pair can find a rebound towards 78.64.
Signal For 13 - 17 August 2012
Buy long above 78.39, take profit at 79.04, Stop Loss bellow weekly support of 77.99.
 ____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 79.29
Weekly - R2 = 79.04
Weekly - R1 = 78.64
Weekly Pivot = 78.39
Weekly - S1 = 77.99
Weekly - S2 = 77.74
Weekly - S3 = 77.34
 ____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 84.64
Monthly - R2 = 80.86
Monthly - R1 = 79.49
Monthly Pivot = 78.71
Monthly - S1 = 77.34
Monthly - S2 = 76.56
Monthly - S3 = 75.19
AUD/USD
The Pivot Point (PPV) can serve well as both support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for AUD/USD are: 1.0561 weekly; 1.0379 monthly.
The Australian dollar is above the pivot weekly and the Moving Average of 200 periods (blue).
Therefore, the pivot points show the following.
The weekly resistance level of 1.0626 has a very strong resistance. Last week the pair reached the 1.0610 level near the resistance of 1.0626 and decreased afterwards. In case the pair is overbought, is possible to enter a future sale in the weekly R1 level with weekly support targets until 1.0445 (W_S2).
Signal For 13 - 17 August 2012
Sell short 1.0590, Take Profit at 1.0445, Stop Loss at 1.0630
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0742
Weekly - R2 = 1.0677
Weekly - R1 = 1.0626
Weekly Pivot = 1.0561
Weekly - S1 = 1.0510
Weekly - S2 = 1.0445
Weekly - S3 = 1.0394
 _____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1098
Monthly - R2 = 1.0817
Monthly - R1 = 1.0660
Monthly Pivot = 1.0379
Monthly - S1 = 1.0222
Monthly - S2 = 0.9941
Monthly - S3 = 0.9784

Japanese Candlestick Patterns


Here’s the list of the patterns that it can recognize with the corresponding chart pictures and signal descriptions:
Bearish patterns 
 Shooting star. Can signal an end of the bullish trend. Should be confirmed by other patterns.
 The longer is the shadow the stronger is the signal.
Evening star. Acts as a stronger trend reversal signal.
Note that the shadows should be very short and the body shouldn't large as well.
Evening doji star. Almost the same as previous, but some traders consider it a stronger signal.
Dark cloud pattern. The two-candle pattern is ending the bullish trend.
Note the opening of the second candle — it should be above the first one's close.
Second candle should close below the 50% of first candle's body. Both bodies should be long enough.
Moderately strong signal.
Bearish engulfing pattern. This two-candle pattern appears at the end of the uptrend.
Second (bearish) candle should open higher than first candle's high and should close above the first one's low
(completely engulf it). Moderately strong signal.
Bullish patterns
Bullish hammer. Can signal an end of the bearish trend. Should be confirmed by other patterns.
The longer is the shadow the stronger is the signal.
Morning star. Acts as a stronger trend reversal signal.
Note that the shadows should be very short and the body shouldn't large as well.
Morning doji star. Almost the same as previous, but some traders consider it a stronger signal.
Piercing line pattern. The two-candle pattern is ending the bearish trend.
Note the opening of the second candle — it should be below the first one's close.
Second candle should close above the 50% of first candle's body.
Both bodies should be long enough. Moderately strong signal.
Bullish engulfing pattern. This two-candle pattern appears at the end of the downtrend.
Second (bullish) candle should open lower than first candle's low and should close above first one's high
(completely engulf it). Moderately strong signal.

Forex Analysis & Review August 10, 2012


Hello Hendra,
It's Paul with today's market review
Let's start from fundamental view
China Presented Negative Data
The data on Chinese economy for July had a great impact on stock markets and affected exchange rates as well.
The Asian giant presented alarming figures of foreign trade balance with a significant drop in exports which resulted in world imports exponents.
The Australian dollar suffered the most losing its secondary uptrend against the dollar. It is quite obvious as Australia is one of the largest Chinese exporters. And the recent news undoubtedly influenced the market.
But the euro fall is accounted not only for Chinese poor statistics but also for its own evils. Italy announced that it will probably have to ask for fund bailout from the Eurozone, while Spain's situation does not improve.
Meanwhile, the German finance ministry said added more pessimism stating that the risk of growth slowdown of the Eurozone economy is increasing. As it is seen, the situation is difficult within the European currency which, however, does not leave a fairly narrow price range, like all other leading currencies.
Meanwhile, a significant drop in the price of oil is pushing back its top of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso. The loonie was affected the day before by a negative trade balance from Canada. The USD /CAD rate reached 0.9910, where it found support, technically speaking, in the bottom of a bearish channel on the 4 hour chart. Although it has lost 20 points that separate the current price which evidences that it will not be easy to recover.
The pound sterling accompanies the euro with its downward movement, and has just broken the line passing upward by 1.5605. The minimum of the day, 1.5575, can be easily overcome if the price fails to break higher while seeking a pullback against the mentioned line. The trend of the pound for the next few hours, therefore, is bearish.
AUD/USD Sell Bellow 1.0610
Australia is one of the largest Chinese exporters. That is why recent pessimistic news undoubtedly influenced the market. The Asian giant presented alarming figures of foreign trade balance with a significant drop in exports which resulted in world imports exponents.
The Australian dollar suffered the most losing its secondary uptrend against the dollar.
Yesterday we mentioned that AUD / USD had a very strong resistance at 1.0610 and 1.0620; given that the indicators are showing overbought position, there may be a fall for the next few days.
Therefore, a return to Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.0545 will be our entry level in short, targeted to the 1.0288 level of the moving average of 200 periods.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing bearish signal.
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5680
The pound sterling is quoted below weekly pivot line, so it means that a close below this level could push the currency down to 1.5506. As you know the market is trying to rebound in the levels of support, so it is likely to rebound towards the 1.5675. At this level we recommend selling to the nearest targeted support 1.5506.
Furthermore, if after trading session the pair is above 1.5690, we recommend close our short positions as during the next week we could see a recovery of the pound sterling.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing mixed trend.

Fundamental Analysis


On Wednesday the Fed announced that it was ready to take actions when needed in order to stimulate the growth of the U.S. economy. The markets, which are always awaiting money injections, responded with a downside movement.
On Thursday the European Central Bank made some announcements. The markets expected some positive news from The ECB President Mario Draghi who was supported by several European leaders. But Draghi did not meet investors' expectations. His announcements about monetary policy are not of much importance, as they contain just empty declarations with no real actions to be taken. 
European currencies dropped again, followed by the euro decline which touched 1.21 again and now is trading near its 2-year minimum. The pound sterling which recovered its positions also fell heavily, accompanied by the Swiss franc and the currencies linked to commodities, but the last ones dropped down to a lesser extent.
The US ISM services remained unchanged above 52 and 50 points which is still far from sector contraction.
As usual, we recommend waiting for the short term trends. Watch for data to stabilize before taking action on the market. Prices tend to show unpredictable movements in the first minutes after the employment figures release and there is no need to take unnecessary risks with a day ahead.
 
EUR/USD Buy Above 1.2250
 
Yesterday the euro dropped again reaching 1.2138 amid Mario Draghi's announcements supported by several European leaders. However, the ECB President did not meet investors' expectations. His announcements were just empty declarations without any steps to be taken which proved again that nobody knows how to cope with the crisis.
On a technical level, the euro is trading below 1.2250 weekly pivot, offsetting yesterday's losses. Only a close above 1.2250 will indicate the beginning of a new upward trend with the target of 1.2410 which is likely to be unchanged during the next week as well. We, therefore, recommend buying above 1.2250.
The indicators are showing an imminent upward bounce.
 
 

GBP/USD Buy Above 1.5550
 
The British pound is within the range of 1.5770 to 1.54 consolidation. The fact that initially fired up to 1.57 and then ended at 1.55 does not bode well for this market in the future.
Whether it is likely to continue this movement a little longer or not, will be confined within this range.
Therefore, given that now trades below 1.5550 weekly support (W_S1) is likely to close in 4 hours charts above this level. If the pair manages to hold above 1.5551, we recommend buying with objectives in the short term at 1.5730. Our stop loss is placed below the minimum of yesterday.
 
 

Persiapan Trading Forex


Dasar-dasar Forex

Berikut ini adalah persiapan dasar yang dibutuhkan guna menciptakan bisnis Forex yang sebenarnya:
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Seorang pedagang Forex yang cukup terlatih secara potensial mampu menghasilkan KEUNTUNGAN BESAR setiap bulan, minggu, atau hari! (Tentu saja seorang pedagang Forex yang tidak terlatih dengan baik juga bisa menderita KERUGIAN BESAR.)

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