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Daily Financial Report

This article provides a brief analysis of the main financial and economic events of the day.

Economy

Last week the biggest impact on the rates was caused by the elections in France and Greece. The political instability in Greece and the probability of Greece leaving the EU monetary union were important factors as well. The EU approved of allocation of 5.2 billion Euro aid to Greece. The economy of the USA continues to display signs of improvement.

Assets' Highlights

EUR/USD

Last week the Euro depreciated against the US Dollar from. From technical point of view as the gap at the beginning of the week near the level of 1.3080 - 1.3065 remained not closed the EUR has more chances for continuing of the downward trend in the direction of 1.2805, 1.2750, and even 1.2550. All that is happening against the background of expectation of rates’ lowering by ECB and anticipation of political collapse of Europe.

USD/JPY

Last week the US Dollar grew against the Yen. The risk of testing of 78.00, 77.30, and 76.02 still remains one of the tools of checking the “nerve system” of the Bank of Japan. The Yen is stuck at the levels of January 1995. And it is quite interesting to compare the current state of Japanese economy with that time.

GBP/USD

Last week the Pound depreciated against the US Dollar. The British currency turned out to be too over purchased and the current situation suggests strong correctional downgrade. The closest correction goal is the area 1.5901 - 1.5970. But this is only the beginning. The full correction is expected in the area 1.5605 - 1.5650.

Tradeology

Tradeology
Many feel Euro could sink even lower

Earlier today, the Euro hit its lowest level in nearly four months. Greek politicians had failed in their latest efforts to form a ruling coalition. Investors remain concerned about the risk of Greece exiting the Euro zone.
Adrian Jones

Adrian Jones


Hi Hendra


A new election has essentially been ensured, after Greek coalition talks hit an impasse on Sunday.


Greece's radical leftist leader had spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of talks, which he had sought for today.


The standoff has resulted in renewed concern that Greece could ultimately leave the Euro area, should it renege on pledges to cut spending under the two bailouts negotiated over the past two years. The region's finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels later today and may then discuss aid for Greece.


In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives yesterday suffered a crushing defeat in an election held in Germany's most populous state. In fact, it was their worst defeat in elections since World War II. This result could embolden the left opposition to step up attacks on Merkel's European austerity policies.


A report due today may show that industrial production in the 17-nation Euro region has risen 0.5% in March after a revised figure of 0.8% in February. As compared to a year ago, output is predicted to have decreased 1.4%.


In the view of many analysts, the Euro is likely to head lower in the coming weeks, as they expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) may eventually adopt further monetary easing steps to support the region's economy.


The Euro had earlier slipped to $1.2878, its lowest level since the 23rd of January, and it fell 0.1% to 103.17 Yen.


The safe haven Dollar, on the other hand, has risen broadly, as currencies sensitive to shifts in risk appetite had come under pressure.


The U.S. Dollar had edged up 0.1% to the Yen to 79.98 Yen. The Greenback had been supported by Dollar buying by Japanese importers and following Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, having told The Wall Street Journal over the weekend, that all options were on the table for dealing with the strong Yen. He stopped short though, of saying that the currency was overvalued.


The Greenback earlier touched $1.0012 to the Aussie.


The Australian Dollar had declined even after the People's Bank of China had announced that reserve ratios will fall 50 basis points, effective from May 18th. This is the third reduction in six months and is significant for Australia, seeing that China is its largest trading partner.


The People's Bank is expected to release an estimated 400 billion Yuan ($63.5 billion) for lending, to avert the risk of a sudden slowdown in what is the world's second largest economy.


All the best!


Adrian Jones

This Small Town Farmer Wants To Teach You How
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Wesley Govender

Wesley
Govender



EXOTIC TRADING


Greece Uncertainty Weighing Heavily On The Euro


Political leaders in Greece remain dead-locked in their efforts to form a ruling coalition. This has led to further speculation that the country may be exiting the Euro Zone.


The Euro hit its lowest levels in nearly 4 months and many analysts believe it is likely to head lower over the next few weeks as the European Central Bank may have to intervene and adopt further monetary easing steps to support the EU economy.


The Japanese Yen was caught on the back foot against the US Dollar, after opening slightly lower against the Dollar in early trading on Monday.


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News Watch For EURJPY
=====================


There are no High Impact news releases scheduled for the EURJPY pair this week but look out for German Economic Sentiment data due out tomorrow at 9am GMT.


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EURJPY Analysis
===============


The EURJPY got off to a slow start this week, barely moving off the start line, but it should shake it off as the major market players emerge. Let's take a look at the lay of the land:



Click on Image to Enlargen


As you can see, the pair entered a range immediately after we were taken out of our last profitable trade entered on Thursday.


Right now my indicators are moving sideways but my overall bias remains bearish as the bearish channel remains intact.


Once the market does wake up we can expect to see price eventually move out of the range. You will notice that I inserted two blue horizontal lines at the most recent swing low and swing high points.


These areas will serve as potential breakout levels that we can monitor. Should price close below the lower blue horizontal line we may look to enter a Sell trade, provided that there is additional confirmation from our indicators.


Targets for Sell trades include the lower bearish channel trendline or the 102.200 support level.


On the other hand, should price close above the upper blue horizontal line we may look to enter a Buy trade, provided that there is additional confirmation from our indicators of course.


Targets for Buy trades include the upper bearish channel trendline or the 104.650 resistance level.


Right now, there's no telling when this pair will spark to life but for the time being we have a good idea of how to approach potential trades, so we can check back again every few hours to re-assess the state of play and act accordingly.


Take care and all the best for the week ahead.


Wesley
Senior Trader for World Class Trading Stars

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Who Trades Full Time And Makes A Lot Of Money

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Joshua Schultz

Joshua Schultz

The Cable looks to be slowly making it's way down to the 1.6000 area as the pull back continues. We do have some reason to believe that the market will move on back up as we have hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart. I'd like to see the market move back up to 1.6300 to make a double top as a target.


Click on Image to Enlargen

On the 4 hour chart we see some more regular bullish divergence even though it's very slight, my indicators are starting to roll over on this time frame.



In the news today we don't have anything on the schedule for either the Gbp or the Usd so we are free and clear to take some action today.

Good luck and safe trading!

Josh
Senior Trader For Profit Day Trading

Piet Swart Trades Full Time
He Makes A Lot Of Money Doing It

He Will Tell You Gratis How You Can Too Here

Piet
Swart

Piet Swart

This morning I am looking at the GBP/USD 1 hour chart. I have two lines on this chart that's important today. If we are wide awake then we could take 45 pips from the market. My system shows me that we could expect an upward movement of about 25 pips to the first target line area at 1.61132. We could land another 20 pips when it pulls back to the second target line area at 1.60927. This one is a fine line and it will require a good balancing act. So stay focused, be alert and never drop your guard.



Click on Image to Enlargen

Remember, trade with your head and not your "gutfeel".

Till next time.

Piet Swart
Forex Income Map

This is Paul with PivotPoints report for this week.

he weekly pivot chart indicates that the pivot points are placed according to the maximums and minimums. This chart will enable to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of a trading map that will allow you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.
Therefore, it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as target, it may turn to be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.

USD/JPY
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 80.84
Weekly - R2 = 80.46
Weekly - R1 = 80.19
Weekly Pivot = 79.81
Weekly - S1 = 79.54
Weekly - S2 = 79.16
Weekly - S3 = 78.89
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 85.74
Monthly - R2 = 84.51
Monthly - R1 = 82.18
Monthly Pivot = 80.95
Monthly - S1 = 78.62
Monthly - S2 = 77.39
Monthly - S3 = 75.06
AUD/USD
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0355
Weekly - R2 = 1.0287
Weekly - R1 = 1.0153
Weekly Pivot = 1.0085
Weekly - S1 = 0.9951
Weekly - S2 = 0.9883
Weekly - S3 = 0.9749
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.0774
Monthly - R2 = 1.0624
Monthly - R1 = 1.0527
Monthly Pivot = 1.0377
Monthly - S1 = 1.0280
Monthly - S2 = 1.0130
Monthly - S3 = 1.0033
GBP/USD
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6294
Weekly - R2 = 1.6246
Weekly - R1 = 1.6157
Weekly Pivot = 1.6109
Weekly - S1 = 1.6020
Weekly - S2 = 1.5972
Weekly - S3 = 1.5883
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6920
Monthly - R2 = 1.6610
Monthly - R1 = 1.6423
Monthly Pivot = 1.6113
Monthly - S1 = 1.5926
Monthly - S2 = 1.5616
Monthly - S3 = 1.5429
Good Luck!

Menentukan trend pasar dengan MA 100 dan CS (CandleStick)

Teknik ini merupakan teknik pertama yang saya kuasai. Dengan berpatokan pada MA 100 dan CS maka kita bisa mengetahui pergerakan harga kedepan meski keakuratannya masih belum sempurna. Namun untuk pemula dalam bidang forex teknik ini merupakan salah satu ilmu yang harus di kuasai/paham. Jika kita telah menguasai teknik  Menentukan trend pasar dengan MA 100 dan CS (CandleStick) maka akan mudah dalam memahami teknik" yang lain. Dan kita juga bisa mengembangkannya sendiri untuk menyempurnakan keakuratannya.

Teknik sangat simple karena hanya berpegang pada pergerakan CS (CandleStick). Secara garis besar teknik ini mempunyai rules sebagai berikut:
Jika tubuh CandleStick memotong garis MA 100 pada batas bawah maka kita harus OP Sell

Jika tubuh CandleStick memotong garis MA 100 pada batas atas maka kita harus OP Buy
Teknik ini juga bisa kita padukan dengan teknik yang lain untuk menyempurnakan keakuratannya.
Pengalaman pribadi saat menggunakan teknik ini saya hampir kena MC walau di akun demo namun setelah saya teliti lagi dan memahaminya lebih dalam MC pun terlewati.

Dalam kondisi lain teknik ini juga bisa menjadi bumerang yang akan membawa kita ke posisi yang namanya MC. Lihat gambar di bawah ini, contoh false sinyal :
Didalam gambar di atas ada satu candlestick yang memotong MA 100 pada batas atas, ini merupakan false sinyal dan jangan terpengaruh. Kita bisa menentukan bahwa ini merupakan false sinyal dengan melihat CandleStick sebelumnya. Terlihat CandleStick sebelumnya memotong MA 100 pada batas atas dan selanjutnya ada CandleStick yang memotong MA 100 pada Batas atas maka tetaplah pada posisi sell dan jangan hiraukan CandleStick yang memotong MA 100 pada Batas atas tersebut karena merupakan false sinyal.